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More and more storms in the region of Quebec?

More and more storms in the region of Quebec
(Quebec) you still doubt the word of climatologists who promise the most violent storms in the future?

Well, it's already started, according to measurements taken not later than on the South Shore of Quebec, which show that the storms that came back once every 40 years in the first half of the twentieth century now occur once every 10 years.

Sorry but I still doubt, after reading your text ....

Presented this week by André Musy, Executive Director of Ouranos, a consortium Quebec scientific climate, these data are based on special measures the level of the river between 1900 and 2002 Lauzon.

Strong winds and atmospheric pressure can indeed move relatively large masses of water and thus influence the level of the river, he says. If one measures the river level and is subtracted tidal effect, this gives a measure, called premium, the strength of storms, with more high winds, plus the mass of water displaced is large.

To measure the strength of storms, M. Musy has analyzed the case where this "surplus" water has exceeded a meter in Lauzon, and brought all cases in two time slices: one extends from 1900 to 1956, and the other from 1957 to 2002. By comparing the two, Mr. Musy has demonstrated that large storms occur much more frequently in the Quebec City region a century ago.

In the period 1957-2002, in fact, very large surges of 2.3 meters (which is no small thing) occurred once every 10 years, but this amplitude was observed only once every 40 to 45 years between 1900 and 1956.

These "extreme events" are much more common now than a century ago.
I do not know if there is a scientific publication associated with this ... It is not the site of Uranus at least ...

But hey, take what we have and assume that the facts are real ....

First, what does the study measure? It measures very large storms. The genus of storm, as measured occurs once every 20 years.

(based on the results of Uranus)

But statistically, the measurements obtained are not very relevant.

Take for example this statement:

but the amplitude was observed only once every 40 to 45 years between 1900 and 1956.

This is said as if it were an established norm of the past. But once every 40 years between 1900 and 1956, it once ....

In the period 1957-2002, in fact, very large surges of 2.3 meters (which is no small thing) occurred once every 10 years

Here, between 1957 and 2002, four times ....

With so little data, with events so infrequent compared to the time period evaluated, any conclusion is statistically impossible.

In addition, if these people really want to prove that there are more storms, there are other methods to achieve stronger ....

For example, combine with atmospheric winds and precipitation (which really defined a storm ...) over time. Obviously such data do not go back until 1900 but it would have been possible for us to show a trend from 1950 to now (if it exists).

More storms in the region of Quebec? Not very convincing

...

Francis.